The mobility data of the global supply chain and social surface personnel in the last three years has fluctuated repeatedly due to the impact of the novel coronavirus, putting enormous pressure on the growth of demand in countries around the world. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) and the Service Industry Survey Centre of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 48.6% in December 2022, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, declining for three consecutive months, the lowest point since 2022.
The global manufacturing sector maintained a steady growth rate in the first half of 2022, while the second half of the year showed a downward trend and the rate of decline accelerated. The 4 percentage points of economic decline in the first half of this year indicates the further growth of downward pressure, making the growth expectation of the world economy continuously downward revised. Although all parties in the world have different growth forecasts for the world economy, from an overall perspective, it is generally believed that the world economic growth will continue to slow in 2023.
According to relevant analyses, the downward trend is more likely to come from external market shocks and is a short-term phenomenon in economic operation, not sustainable for a long time. From the conditions of the peak study for the epidemic around the world and the gradual implementation of China’s optimisation policies related to the new coronavirus, China’s economy is running on a normal track and domestic demand will continue to recover and expand, which will in turn drive the expansion of the manufacturing sector, release foreign trade and enhance the economic recovery momentum. It is predicted that China will have a good basis for rebound in 2023 and will show a steady upward trend overall.
Post time: Feb-10-2023